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領域II - (1)　平和構築に向けた知の展開

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(1) Thomas S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, 3rd edition, Chicago IL: University of Chicago Press, 1996. ▲

(2) For a sociological theory of epistemology, invoking isomorphism between social structure and science (establishment) structure, and of both with theory structure, see Johan Galtung, "Social structure and science structure", in Methodology and Ideology, Copenhagen: Ejlers, 1977, Ch. 1, pp. 13-40. ▲

(3) There is also another approach for a younger generation on its way up: attack the dominant paradigm with no alternative paradigm in mind. And the vulgar version of this approach: attack the established holders of the old paradigm, with themselves in mind as alternatives. Where these approaches prevail academic life becomes as boring as negative politicking. ▲

(4) For one presentation of Ibn Khaldun's cyclical theory of macro-historical change, see Galtung, J and Inayatuallah, S eds., Macrohistory and Macrohistorians, New York: Praeger, 1997. ▲

(5) There is a broader interpretation of this. The West in general, white Anglo-saxons in particular and US elites even more in particular have now been repeating their twin mantras of electionism and neo-liberalism for the better part of two centuries. They are basking in the sun like the feudal lords in the high castles Ibn Khaldun has in mind. Who are knocking at the gates? The working class, told that whoever wants access to the club have to look like the members of the club, inside the Burg, the Burger, the burghers, became bourgeois. The women are knocking, and are told those who will never look like men have to think, talk and act even more like them. Colored people are told the same. Even African Americans can rise to the very top as Secretary of State, as key advisor to the President in foreign affairs, as Supreme Court Justice, if they are only sufficiently conservative. The game has to be played according to the rules. Greens, environmentalists are more problematic: they reject the club paradigms.
　　Was 9/11 2001 a khaldunian knock on the gates of the US power elite? That depends on to what extent the "Bedouins at the gates" have an alternative paradigm. In general the new paradigm has to produce not only new questions and new answers, but also reproduce acceptable old and new answers to old questions. A hard task for young fundamentalist wahhabs to take on. ▲

(6) See the author's "Meeting Basic Needs: Peace and Development", The Royal Society Discussion Meeting on "The science of well-being - integrating neurobiology, psychology and social science", 19-20 November 2003, to be published in the proceedings.
　　 Two approaches are indicated to identify needs:
- human physiology, particularly the openings of the body and what goes in and out, including impressions entering through eyes and ears, being processed, exiting as expressions through the mouth, body language, including writing (hence needs for impressions and expression); not only air, water, food entering through nose and mouth, then being digested and excreted (hence needs for air, water and food, and toilets; and for digestion (like the processing above).
- by asking people, in dialogues as the author did in about 50 countries what they cannot do without.
　　The four categories of needs summarize the findings. ▲

(7) Human Rights Quarterly, Vol. 4, No. 3 1995, pp. 14-24. ▲

(8) The meeting at Mohonk, NY, was the fourth in a series organized autumn 1993 by the Task Force on Ethical and Legal Issues in Humanitarian Assistance formed by the Programme on Humanitarian Assistance at the World Conference on Religion and Peace, an NGO. Broadly based in participation the criteria have often served as a point of reference, as is also done here. ▲

(9) That symbol, however, is ambiguous, associated with assistance to civilian victims, but also with military units assisting the perpetrators, the military themselves. To argue two different symbols in no way is to argue that military personnel should not also be relieved of their suffering. ▲

(10) Carol Gilligan, In a Different Voice: Psychological Theory and Women's Development (Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press, 1982) ▲

(11) Human Rights Quarterly, p. 15. Whether the view is predominantly male or predominantly American is a moot point; the two categories obviously do not exclude each other, but may reinforce each other. ▲

(12) I am indebted to Patrick Rechner of the Ministry of Defense in Ottawa for sensitizing me to this dimension. ▲

(13) Colonel Lloyd J. Matthews, "The Evolution of American Military Ideals", Military Review, January-February 1998, pp. 56-61. ▲

(14) From "A Force for Peace and Security: US and Allied Commanders' Views of the Military's Role in Peace Operations", Peace Through Law Education Fund, 2002. ▲

(15) This goes with the famous thesis of a Pentagon planner:
"The de facto role of the US armed forces will be to keep the world safe four our economy and open to our cultural assault. To those ends, we will do a fair amount of killing", quoted by Major Ralph Peters, Parameters, Summer 1997, pp. 4-14, US Army War College.
As George Bush says in Bob Woodward's Bush at War, "We will export death and violence to the four corners of the Earth in defense of our great nation". ▲

(16) See Conflict Transformation By Peaceful Means, Geneva: United Nations Development Programme, Disaster Management Training Programme, 1998. ▲

(17) For ten important cases, see Peace By Peaceful Means London: SAGE, 1996, Second printing 1998, chapter II.5 on nonviolence. ▲

(18) An alternative terminology:
　　 hard military = peace enforcement
　　 soft military = peacekeeping
　　 soft noviolence = peace by peaceful means
　　 hard noviolence = nonviolence ▲

(19) Governments have been generous in financing security studies, assuming that the conclusions will by and large be compatible with their own national interests. Peace studies were globalized before globalization came around as a concept, taking into account the world interest, the human interest (basic needs/rights), the nature interest - and national interests, in plural. Governmental funding has of course been stingy or absent, and more so the more the government wants military options, including intervention and war. ▲

(20) The problem with the student Otpor nonviolence is, of course, to what extent it is a genuine, spontaneous reaction of a part of the population, and to what extent it could be a deliberate effort by outside powers, like the US Embassy, to use nonviolence when their military effort to dislodge the Milosevic regime had failed. The Soros foundation financed an invitation to Otpor activists to Tbilisi, "teaching more than 1,000 Georgian students how to stage a bloodless revolution" (Daily Georgian Times, January 8, 2004). Obviously Shevardnadze was a "goner" who could no longer be used by the USA, a liability like the Shah and Marcos, and Mikhail Saakashvili, a US-trained lawyer, was in reality the only candidate. ▲

(21) If legitimacy for hard military intervention, also for other than humanitarian reasons, was the basic motivation, then the competitors to that approach would have to be eliminated. The hypothesis that there was no intervention in Rwanda (in spite of the intelligence available) precisely to give non-intervention a bad name, and no harder intervention in Srebrenica (in spite of the intelligence available) to give UN peacekeeping a bad name may sound conspiratorial. But if a major structure, like the US (and UK, and increasingly NATO) offensive war machine, very "hard military", is fighting to survive such strategies would be expected. ▲

(22) Actually the prize of the centenary fund of the Swedish national bank, wrongly termed "Nobel prize" as it was not among Alfred Nobel's prizes. ▲

(23) The day the US president declared that the combat in Iraq was essentially over. ▲

(24) Also see the interview with Amartya Sen in SGI Quarterly, July 2003, pp. 3-5. He draws the attention to the "inescapable downturns" and "unanticipated declines", in any development or political process, that "the old idea of growth with equity does not provide an adequate guarantee security". To this one may of course comment that any process sets forces into motion which in turn will trigger counter-forces that may be stronger, making some downturns perhaps more inescapable than unanticipated, and less inescapable had they been anticipated. ▲

(25) Not to mention the rather obvious: with Saddam Hussein gone we would expect much more resistance, not necessarily violent, from the Kurds and the Shia according to the "USA has done its job, USA can leave" logic, as William Pfaff (The Japan Times, December 19 2003) and Paul Krugman (IHT, December 20-21) agree. ▲

(26) Japan Times, 10 January 2004. ▲

(27) This is where "regional studies, focusing on Iraq, more particularly on Arab culture (as different from, for instance, Kurdish culture) and even more particularly Bedouin culture is important in comparing cultures an other aspects of the region. The world is no longer cut out only for comparative studies. The regions interact, indeed, the world is relational, not only relative. In this particular case we are talking about the relation between Iraq and the USA, bringing in also US deep culture. And with so much of the killing being from long distance (missiles) or high up (bombs) the courage is reduced, and so are dignity and honor. In addition the time perspective is limited to what it takes for a war machine to manage military victory, after that the impatience becomes palpable and any other form of resistance is defined away as "terrorism". Hypothesis: the party with the longer time perspective, accumulating honor in the process, will win.
　　For that type of conclusion a regional perspective focusing on Iraq/Arab world/Islam only is misleading. At least two regional perspectives would be needed, and a study of their relation. ▲

(28) There is, of course, ambiguity surrounding the major recent atrocities. To the extent the Halabja massacre in connection with the war against Iran--a war instigated by the USA--had many Iraqi Kurds predictably fighting Baghdad, and to the extent the massacres of Kurds and Shia in connection with the 1991 war was encouraged by the USA to revolt against the regime but not effectively supported, the responsibility has to be shared. In no way justifying the atrocities, the explanation includes, but also goes beyond the Saddam Hussein regime. The Guardian (29 January 2004) "Saddam's worst atrocities when he was backed by the West". ▲

(29) Other estimates are as high as 30-35,000. ▲

(30) The figures for the Twin Tower/Pentagon atrocity tend to vary between 3,000 and 3,100. ▲

(31) Naomi Klein, The Guardian, November 7 2003. ▲

(32) Thus, the idea frequently heard in the US election debate that the occupation forces were insufficiently prepared for the aftermath of the war rings false. This is well thought through, is a big operation, and was implemented quickly. ▲

(33) I am indebted to Professor Hamid Mowlana for this point. ▲

(34) To understand better what this disrespect for Islam might mean the theological profile of the USA in general is useful.
　　 In polls conducted September 2003 on the beliefs of the US people, 42% said "the Bible as the actual word of God", 69% felt "religion plays too small a role in most people's lives today", 92% believe in God, 85% in Heaven, 82% in Miracles, 78% in Angels, 74% in Hell, 71% in The Devil, 34% in UFOs, 34% in Ghosts, 29% in Astrology, 25% in Reincarnation and 24% in Witches (Chicago Tribune in cooperation with The Yomiuri Shimbun, January 3 2004). The profile of a premodern country, not yet seriously touched by the Enlightenment? ▲

(35) The geopolitics behind this is Mackinder's theory (1904) about the strengths and weaknesses of regions of the world, concluding that the Russian core and areas to the east contained the potential to become a world power. In 1919 this was revised to include Eastern Europe, and became known as Mackinder's Heartland Theory: "Who rules East Europe commamnds the heartland, who rules the heartland commands the World Island (Eurasia and Africa); and who rules the World Island commands the World". This theory has then been picked up by Zbigniew Brzezinski in "a modernized Mackinder heartland vision of a grand U.S. led anti-Russian coalition of Europe, Turkey, Iran and China as well as Central Asia" (Andre Gunder Frank, in "The 'Great Game' for Caspian Sea Oil", CENTRAL ASIA Online #109, November 25-December 1, 2000). ▲

(36) See Geoffrey Heard, Melbourne, "It's not about oil or Iraq; it's about the US and Europe going head-to-head on world economic dominance", [journey@mbox.kyoto-inet.or.jp]. As to the central control, "the Kurds got word from Paul Bremer 3rd, the U.S administrator in Iraq, that the United States wanted them to give up their powers over security, oil resources an other matters and accede to the authority of the new Iraqi state that is about to be born", IHT, 10-11 January 2004. ▲

(37) We have not listed Israel and Palestine as parties, but the Israeli goal of security, like Palestine's, is of course legitimate. Israel-Palestine would obviously be the third major point on a CSCME agenda. For a vision of a six-country Middle East Community modeled on the European Community of the Treaty of Rome 1958, see www.transcend.org.
　　The US goal in this connection, however, is not only neo-con geopolitics for the Gulf region as defined in the famous PNAC document. There is also the fundamentalist position, "to ensure that Muslims and Islam are defeated so that the Biblical prophecy of a triumphant Israel" will herald the "return of the Messiah". Of course, when that happens, according to the evangelists' erroneous reading of the Bible, the Jews will also be converted to Christianity. What this means is that there is messianic zeal that drives a section of Christian evangelism as it forges an opportunistic link with a segment of right-wing political Zionism", Chandra Muzaffar, "Demonising the enemy", JUST, vol. 3 no. 11, November 2003, p. 4. ▲

(38) Saudi Arabia is ambiguous. Wahhabism, a fundamentalism, ascetic and nationalist, would set them on a collision course with economism, consumerist and globalist. The treaty of 1945 between the USA and Saudi Arabia was with the Royal House and also stipulated the duty of the USA to assist the Royal House in conflicts with its own people.
　　However, the Royal House is now divided against itself, as pointed out by Michael Scott Doran, :"Saudi Arabia, America's ally and enemy" (IHT, December 23, 2003):
"On the one hand, some Westernizers in the ruling class look to Europe and the United States as models of political development; on the other, a Wahhabi religious establishment holds up its interpretation of Islam's golden age and considers giving any voice to non-Wahhabis as idolatry. Saudi Arabia's most powerful figures have taken opposite sides in this debate: Crown Prince Abduallah tilts toward the liberal reformers, whereas his half-brother Prince Nayef, the interior minister, sides with the clerics. ▲

(39) See, for instance, "British officers knew on eve of war that Iraq had no WMDs", The Scotsman, 4 February 2004; "Iraqi who gave MI6 45-minute claim says it was untrue", The Guardian, 27 January 2004 and the very thoughtful article Kenneth Pollack, "How did we get it so wrong", The Guardian, 04 February 2004. Had there been WMD they knew about they would of course not have launched a massive ground attack across the Kuwait-Iraq border. A much better hypothesis is that they relied on the UNSCOM job and the testimony August 1995 of Hussein Kamal, Saddam's son-in-laW and head of Iraq's WMD programs (see Pollack, op.cit). ▲

(40) As is to be expected in a region with centuries of experience in fighting the Ottoman empire, 40 years in fighting the British (1918-58), and a very long time perspective. ▲

(41) The whole idea of the President of the USA having a "mandate" from the US people in foreign policies when millions of people, and dozens of peoples, are affected but have no say in the matter, e.g. no right to vote in US presidential elections, is pathetic, and a good indicator of how much democracy education is still needed. With all its shortcomings the UN Security Council is an effort to correct for that. A UN Peoples' Assembly of elected representatives for all over the world would be even better.
　　The same applies to the pre-Enlightenment, pre-modern idea of a divine mandate. For an analysis of how far Bush is on that line see Joan Didion, "Mr. Bush & the Divine", The New York Review of Books, November 6, 2003, pp. 81-86. ▲

(42)"The New American Century" at the World Social Forum in Mumbai January 2004, http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040209&s=roy&c=1. ▲

(43) The Australian, March 19 2004, "Worley wins Iraq contract; Spoils of war". ▲

(44) Der Spiegel, 4/2004, p. 97. ▲

(45) The current US policy, it seems, based on geography rather than culture, see the New York Times editorial in IHT 10-11 January 2004. ▲

(46) As proposed by Leslie Gelb, see the editorial in New York Times, November 25, 2003. ▲

(47) For analyses of similarities and differences, see Robert G. Kaiser, "Iraq isn't Vietnam, but they rhyme", The Japan Times, January 1 2004 (from Washington Post), and William Pfaff, "Bush is ignoring the political lesson of Vietnam", IHT, January 3-4 2004. For a report on US in Vietnam, see "Ex-G.I.'s tell of Vietnam brutality", IHT, December 30 2003. ▲

(48) To the extent neo-conservative political thinking serves a guide to US foreign policy, there may be more to come. In their book An End to Evil: How to Win the War on Terror by Richard Perle and David Frum, the geopolitics of the Project for a New American Century, PNAC, seems to have been updated:
- Tough action against France, "we should force European governments to choose between Paris and Washington";
- Britain's independence from Europe should be preserved, perhaps with open access for British arms to American defense markets;
- "tell the truth about Saudi Arabia, they fund al-Qa'eda and back terror-tainted Islamic organizations;
- the authoritarian rule of Syria's leader, Bashar Assad, should be ended by shutting oil supplies from Iraq and raids into Syria to hunt terrorists. ▲

(49) Condoleeza Rice. ▲

(50)"If it was happening in, say, Uzbekistan or Malaysia, it would be clearly seen for what it is - a sinister abrogation of press freedom by an authoritarian government intent on suppressing an important story" - Jake M. Lynch in a private communication. ▲

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